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Monitoring Booms and Busts
Monitoring Booms and Busts

Methodology: A rolling window Dickey Fuller (DF) right tailed test is applied by undergoing multiple regressions with different sample windows each time. The method is based on the following simple form of regression:  yt=μ+γy(t-1)+ εt where, yt is the property price (for each region).  The test identifies exuberance in house prices, through the estimation of autoregressive effects and the unit root hypothesis and determines if the coefficient γ exceeds unity in the autoregressive response. The AR (1) process is estimated over rolling data samples, such that for each sample a new value of the coefficient γ is obtained. In the test, the null hypothesis Hο is that γ <= 1 (unit root behavior), whereas the alternative hypothesis Ha: γ>1 indicates explosive behavior.

Periods of Exuberance:

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